The speed at which politics moves in 2024 is enough to give the American citizenry a massive case of whiplash. It was just over three weeks ago that Joe Biden took the stage in a CNN debate that left the nation and the world shocked at his incapacity — leading to a massive freakout in the media, the donors and the Democratic base. But in the time since, it appeared the president, his inner circle and his family had dug in, insisting against all efforts to dislodge him that the president intended to continue to run and win in November.
The mood among Democratic circles was dejected, the attitude among the Donald Trump campaign ebullient — and that was before a failed assassination attempt just a week ago, a successful convention and the naming of J.D. Vance as running mate, injecting new energy into the Republican Party. Now from the White House the announcement has come: after all the resistance, Joe Biden is declining the nomination and endorsing Kamala Harris as his heir. To say this has been a whirlwind of news is an understatement. But where does it all go from here?
The winners of the current moment necessarily include Harris, who seems immovable at this late stage as the nominee of the party, something that seemed extremely unlikely given the path Democrats were on just a month ago and their deep bench for a 2028 contest. It also includes Donald Trump, who has consistently led Harris by more than he has led Biden even in the aftermath of that terrible debate. But most of all, this moment confirms the fact that everyone knows: Nancy Pelosi is still the undefeated and eternal Queen of the Realm — and what she says goes. The suggestion in the past week that her allies were being more outspoken — and that Pelosi herself had behind the scenes expressed her lack of faith in the Biden 24 project, was more decisive than any factor in removing Biden from the ticket and clearing the way for an alternative she believes in. Whether she threatened to actually deploy the Twenty-Fifth Amendment or not, Pelosi knew what to do to move Joe out.
The losers are equally obvious. The Biden family, which held on to power in an attempt to white-knuckle it to the end, was ultimately rebuffed. Dr. Jill Biden, Hunter and Ashley will not get their way and will be headed to the White House exits soon enough. And Biden’s allies who stuck through til the end look all the worse for deluding themselves about his capacity. The obvious question, already raised by multiple Republican voices, is how he can possibly remain as president if he cannot even withstand the rigors of a political campaign. The pressure on Biden’s team will be immense and not just come from the right of center press. Having been lied to for so long, the media will not just accept the White House’s excuses as gospel.
Yet perhaps no one is a bigger loser in this scenario than Joe Biden’s media sycophants, who continued to publicly maintain over the past three weeks that everything was just fine, or even if it wasn’t, that Biden represented the one great hedge against the anti-democracy forces of the right. Clearly, in the end, not even Biden himself believed that to be true — or he was incapable of convincing the donors, activists and party leaders that it was the truth. Only the likes of Joe and Mika, Joy and Sunny, Maddow and O’Donnell and the cohort of late-night hosts not named Jon Stewart or Bill Maher were there with Biden at the end of all things. They deserve to be laughingstocks — and they will be.
For Kamala Harris, this opportunity is insane and challenging. Her choice of running mate will be particularly critical, assuming her nomination is accepted by the delegates — and it’s hard to see them welcoming even more chaos in Chicago four weeks from today. One possibility is that she doubles down on the Biden Midwestern wall strategy, potentially by naming someone like Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. But a more inviting prospect might be to lean in the opposite direction given the choice of Vance by Trump. Mark Kelly, the astronaut turned relatively centrist Democratic senator from Arizona, could be part of a Sun Belt and South strategy that would seek to hedge against Trump’s inroads with black and Hispanic voters. For people tired of chaos and culture war, Harris could play to the moderates and Independents who hated both Trump and Biden equally.
As for the Trump effort, as much as this represents an opportunity for a big win, it also disrupts a race that their team was already winning — which is never something you want at this late stage. How Trump handles a potential debate with Harris, at this stage a far more functional communicator than Biden, is an open question. And for Democrats, depressed as they have been these past several weeks, there is a slim but real potential of a turnaround — one which may not see them hold the White House, but could prove to be a better result in the Senate and House than they might have faced under a Biden campaign that had lost both engines and was spiraling rapidly toward the ground.
The last disturbing thought to consider: November is still a long way away. Who knows what will come in the interim. Remember to take your blood pressure meds. 2024 may not be done with us yet.
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