Author: Michael P. Gibson

  • 3I, the interstellar object that’s baffling astronomers

    3I, the interstellar object that’s baffling astronomers

    Science began in the skies. Just after sunset, to be exact, on the evening of November 11, 1572 when a young Danish nobleman, Tycho Brahe, raised his eyes to the night sky. There, above his head, a star was shining brighter than all the rest – a new star that should not have been.

    Brahe thought he was mistaken, that his eyes were playing tricks on him, but others confirmed what he saw. And yet, according to the reigning theory, derived from Aristotle, there could be no change in the eternal heavens. Surely then this object could not be a star. It must be an anomaly in the upper atmosphere, closer to the Earth, within terrestrial realms. But Brahe got to work. Using trigonometry and observations, he found that the impossible had indeed occurred. The radiant object could not be in the upper atmosphere, but must be far beyond the Moon, deep in the heavens. Two thousand years of Aristotelian scholarship was wrong. The scientific revolution had begun.

    The dazzling anomaly Brahe saw turned out to be not a new star but the death of an old one, when a white dwarf exploded into a supernova. We have learned much since Brahe first looked up to the night sky. Five hundred years ago may seem distant, but the age of discovery is still in its infancy. The last week of October brought yet another mystery to the skies above.

    On October 29, an unusual interstellar object named 3I/ATLAS reached the closest point it would come to our Sun before drifting out of the solar system. Discovered on July 1 by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, it’s called 3I because it’s only the third interstellar object we’ve ever seen, and like Brahe, astrophysicists are scratching their heads at its peculiar features.

    To begin with, it’s moving incredibly quickly. Comets are typically born in the Oort cloud, that frozen spherical halo of cosmic debris surrounding Earth’s solar system. Small perturbations can knock one of these icy rocks out of its distant orbit, kicking it down into the well of the solar system. Like a snowball that begins its fall with a nudge, comets have a low initial velocity and gather speed the closer to the Sun they get. But our surprise visitor is moving through the solar system with a velocity too alien in its haste to be a typical comet.

    It is also surprisingly massive. It is at least a thousand times more massive than previous interstellar objects we’ve detected.

    Then there is its tail. Fresh new comets from the Oort cloud have spectacular tails because the chemicals that make up these primordial chunks melt and vaporize for the first time as they approach the Sun. (Older comets have weaker tails because more of their ice has melted on each round trip.) Comet tails appear as a wake fading away from the Sun because solar winds blow the evaporating chemicals off the hurtling core. But our apparition in the sky is doing something no one has ever seen before: its tail up until September was facing toward the Sun, not away from it.

    In a recent study that appeared on arXiv, the open source hub for yet-to-be-reviewed scientific papers, astrophysicists report that 3I/ATLAS is shedding nickel and iron at a rate they can only describe as “exceptional” when compared to typical comets. Freakier still, it is also emitting carbon dioxide and water in a ratio that other researchers have called “unusual” and that, according to one starstruck team, would match the signature of exhaust from a rocket propulsion system. And yet another recent paper found that the object is pulling off some light-bending voodoo – changing the polarization of light – in a way that these scientists say is “unprecedented,” something no rock in our solar system has ever demonstrated before.

    The optimal strategy for living in our universe is to stay silent no matter what

    So what is this thing? Well, it’s probably just a comet, a drifting dusty iceberg birthed in some distant void. We’ve only seen two previous interstellar objects pass through our solar system, each but a brief guest. True, our new visitor might be unusual and unprecedented compared to the typical parade of comets, but we’ve only recently built the tools to detect and observe these travelers. Our sample size is too small. The universe cares nothing for our taxonomies; doubtless there are other dark, fast, and therefore invisible pieces of cosmic debris that currently go undetected. Only once we’ve accumulated enough examples, and with improved sky surveys, might 3I/ATLAS not look so unique after all.

    All the same, 3I’s unusual properties have sparked wild speculation. Internet lunatics and hopped-up podcasters have taken to spinning fantastic tales about an extraterrestrial spacecraft, a glowing neon-lit hot rod pulling a bootleg turn around our Sun, or perhaps just the wreckage of one forgotten by some vast cosmic alien bureaucracy. Avi Loeb, however, is no crank. Loeb is a professor of astrophysics at Harvard and was the longest serving chairman of Harvard’s department of astronomy. Ever since the first interstellar object was detected in 2017, he has argued that they are not rocks, but alien artifacts drifting like sonar buoys. “It could be a black swan event, where something looks natural at first ends up being a Trojan Horse,” Loeb told NewsNation on October 23 when asked about 3I/ATLAS’s approach to the Sun.

    Loeb is calling on scientists to use every asset at their disposal to monitor the mysterious traveler for unusual activity in the months ahead. According to Loeb, the moment at which it is closest to the Sun on October 29 would be the perfect moment to use a gravity slingshot to enter into a controlled skid or even to launch mini-probes out to Venus, Mars and Earth. “Because the implications are so huge for humanity, we must consider it seriously,” he said in the same interview.

    As every game theorist and gang member knows, the optimal strategy for living in our universe is to stay silent no matter what. Why become a target by calling attention to yourself? Better to keep quiet and not attract threats. You never know who is out there who might come to enslave you, eat you, experiment on you or simply just mess with you. If 3I/ATLAS is a glowing mothership, its colorful, dramatic entrance flagrantly flouts all the rules. Aliens brazen enough to announce their existence to others with such fanfare are probably hard-hitting ETs.

    So Loeb isn’t exactly crazy. But the only evidence he has to go on is “unusual activity” that is only unusual because our data is so poor and we’ve only seen two interstellar objects in history. And we say we can “see” these objects, but the images still look like grainy photographs of the Loch Ness monster. We simply need more observations.

    Superstition about the heavens has been with us from time immemorial. Comets have long been considered bad omens. Before the Norman invasion of England in 1066, a brilliant comet appeared in the night sky. As depicted in a scene on the Bayeux Tapestry, sewn to celebrate the Norman victory at the Battle of Hastings, the comet foretells an English defeat. For the English king Harold, the bright anomaly meant the loss of a kingdom. For us, it is the first recorded sighting of Halley’s Comet.

    Understanding natural phenomena may dispel our superstitions, but fear is not unwarranted. The greater danger is not from aliens, but from a cold, indifferent universe. The evidence of the past is before our eyes. The entire surface of the Moon is pockmarked with impact craters from asteroid and comet strikes. One of the largest and brightest, Tycho, a sprawling scar with a diameter of 53 miles, can be seen with the naked eye on its southern edge (named after Tycho Brahe). Here on Earth, the Barringer Crater in Arizona stands out in a flat desert like a half mile-wide scoop gouged out by an angry god. The Tunguska blast of 1908, an asteroid airburst explosion, leveled an estimated 80 million trees over an 830-square-mile area in Siberia. Were such a force similar to these to strike near a city or plunge into the ocean, the blast waves or tsunamis would kill millions in an instant.

    But the mother of them all is the Chicxulub crater across the northern tip of the Yucatán peninsula. Some 66 million years ago an asteroid about six miles across, traveling at 54,000 miles per hour, collided with the Earth in an apocalyptic kaboom that defies the imagination in its horror. The explosion was five billion times more powerful than Hiroshima. Three-quarters of all plant and animal species went extinct. Its most famous victims were the dinosaurs. Unless we too want to become fossils buried beneath silent skies, we must chart all objects in the heavens and develop the technology to disintegrate or corral Earth-crossing asteroids and comets. The scale and vastness of astronomical distances has come to our rescue many times in the past, but the lesson from history is that the status quo equals certain death.

    “The single biggest hurdle in planetary defense is the lack of data,” Matthew Schmidgall tells me. Schmidgall is an asteroid-hunter who is chief executive of ExLabs, a startup building vehicles to visit asteroids and comets. “We have identified less than 10 percent of near-Earth objects. And of that 10 percent, we know the composition of only 10 percent.”

    In April 2029, an asteroid named Apophis will come close to Earth, passing between us and the geostationary satellites we have in orbit – closer even than the Moon. (Not to worry: it’s not on a collision course.) ExLabs is going to send one of its vehicles to rendezvous with the drifting space rock. The mission will carry 11 scientific instruments from eight international partners. Three landers will depart from the mothership to touch down on the asteroid’s surface, study its composition and return to Earth with samples. Missions like this must become routine and frequent. When it comes to planetary defense – deflecting or destroying asteroids or comets – we are currently fumbling in the dark, unable to choose with any confidence between the simplicity of a tugboat push or the apocalyptic gamble of nuclear explosions. But the price tag on the knowledge we need to identify the right move is currently too expensive an education: traditional government missions costing $800 million to$1.5 billion are not realistic.

    So here we are in the dark with grainy images. We can’t risk the future of humanity on a high-stakes coin flip in a pitch-black room. We must leave nothing to chance. We must explore. Commercial interests, fueled by the fire of startups seeking their fortunes, must push the cost of visiting asteroids and comets down. Otherwise we are staring down the cosmic barrel of our own ignorance about what asteroids and comets are even made of.

    Then one day, when the space cowboys can lasso near-Earth asteroids with ease, a fleet of space telescopes can monitor the perimeter and our probes on standby can be thrown on a moment’s notice into gravity-assist slingshots to intercept interstellar comets – on that day, God willing not too far off, we might truly know what objects like 3I/ATLAS are made of. The scientific revolution has only begun.

    This article was originally published in The Spectator’s November 10, 2025 World edition.

  • A lack of national identity has killed off the Great American Novel

    A lack of national identity has killed off the Great American Novel

    Is there hope for literature in America this century? The forecast looks grim. One walk through the literary fiction section at a bookstore is a testament to the art form’s cultural bankruptcy. Just about every other book on the new release table is a treatise on your racism masquerading as a tale of collective uplift. Fine, if you want to expiate your sins of privilege – but all in all, a snoozefest.

    Novels held a central place in America as a vital cultural force; novelists were worshipped as electrifying sages

    Same goes for most of the books on the New York Times list of the 100 best books of the century so far. The subjects of race, gender and oppression generally dominate. Soap-opera conflicts about victimhood crowd the rankings, each one a reproach against your unspoken crimes: your whiteness, your maleness, your very existence. Narrow and righteous, this is a fiction that cannot be pulled apart from politics. Like the top-ranked sermons of Protestant ministers from the 1800s, the whole lot will slide into irrelevance, unread and forgotten.

    The poet Joseph Bottum once described to me what he calls a “cocktail party test” to gauge the cultural significance of a novel. The test is to ask whether you would feel any embarrassment if the smart set at a party brought up a new book and you had to admit you hadn’t read it yet.

    With TV shows, this still happens. The hit HBO series The White Lotus even satirizes such conversations, itself being a show everyone wants to share and talk about after an episode airs. Bottum suggested that the last novel to pass this test was Tom Wolfe’s The Bonfire of the Vanities, published nearly 40 years ago in 1987, a hard-to-believe time when novels still held a central place in America as a vital cultural force and novelists themselves were worshipped as electrifying sages by obsessive fans. The whole country talked about Bonfire. Not just an insular claque of corpses at New York publishing houses and magazines.

    Americans simply don’t read so-called serious fiction very much anymore. Particularly men. It is worth asking why.

    In a column this summer in the New York Times, David Brooks picked up the question, lamenting the fading glory of the literary novel. He too brings up Wolfe as one of the last great American novelists, along with a host of other big names in a Macy’s Parade of boomer nostalgia. Look there’s Saul Bellow! And Philip Roth and Toni Morrison! See how they elevated our souls! Such passionate and prophetic voices, but now, alas, the parade has been canceled, the crowds dispersed and the children told Santa was never real. They might as well look at their phones.

    It is true, Brooks concedes, there are fine novelists out there toiling in the fields of obscurity, but he says they have all failed to capture the whole public’s imagination because they play it too safe and too small. He calls for – begs for – novelists with a grand enough ambition to capture the zeitgeist, to show us who we are – all of us, not just some – and what we could become. Only then might America start reading again.

    It’s a rousing thought, for sure, a heady enough cocktail to quicken the pulse of the most indebted English major’s heart. At least for ten minutes before the next student loan payment comes due. But I’m not convinced that the future of literature in America is dim for lack of courage. The rot is much deeper than that. The poor, sad death of the Great American Novel has less to do with the lost virtue of aspiring writers and more to do with the erosion of a unified national identity and the country’s consequent trajectory toward a more fragmented society of different competing cultural tribes.

    These divisions in the US are deepening: boomers versus Generations X, Y and Z; urban versus rural; race communists versus conservatives; even regional differences are intensifying, with states such as California and Texas growing further apart in policy and culture. It’s hard to believe even a novelist of the first rank could appeal to all members of these warring factions.

    But while it’s true the mainstream literary beast lies belly-up, gasping for its last breath, something fervent is stirring in the cultural underbrush. There may never be a single novel that dominates conversation at cocktail parties across the nation again, but there are little polities of the mind emerging, building their own canons like medieval monks illuminating manuscripts in hidden scriptoria.

    Take the TradCaths. This small but spirited tribe is resurrecting G.K. Chesterton, Hilaire Belloc, J.R.R. Tolkien and Evelyn Waugh – not American authors, sure, but they will form the foundation of a counter-canon that’s booming in sales of reprints and in homeschool curricula, while the secular slop of literary fiction wheezes on life support. In short, the center cannot hold, but the fringes will flourish. And there is one niche with a strong counter current that interests me most.

    One of the oldest themes in the western canon is the conflict between greatness and prestige. What might roughly be called the hero versus the king. The very first word of The Iliad is an ancient Greek word for anger, but not just any anger. It is intense and divine and it is the fury of Achilles, the best among all the heroes in the field.

    One of the oldest themes in the western canon is the conflict between greatness and prestige; the hero versus the king

    And even though the Greeks are at war with the Trojans and have been for years, Achilles isn’t angry about that. He’s angry because an incompetent, corrupt, but legitimate king, his ruler and commander, has taken what doesn’t belong to him. So Achilles shrugs. In a huff he retires from the battle. The central conflict of The Iliad isn’t between the Trojans and the Greeks. It’s between Achilles and Agamemnon: the hero versus the king.

    There are two types of hierarchies battling it out in America today: the hierarchies of prestige and the hierarchies of greatness. They have very different cultures. Prestige hierarchies are those institutions that have a long history, that are large, bureaucratic and powerful and that form the establishment – the departments of the Federal government, Wall Street banks, the media, the professions and elite universities.

    Hierarchies of greatness, on the other hand, emerge when something is the best at what it does in a competitive landscape. They have a short history, they are small and they are extremely competent. A clear example is SpaceX compared to NASA. One soars; the other is buried in committee meetings and memoranda.

    In the hierarchy of prestige, advancement and promotion depend on pleasing superiors. To ascend this pyramid, you must have the right opinions and know the right people. In the hierarchy of greatness, to ascend you must win and solve problems. It’s not about who you know or impress, it’s about what you can do.

    The literature of prestige is the literary canon of the pyramid-climbing tournament that has gripped the nation for 50-plus years – that is, the elite college admissions tournament and beyond that, the tournament to enter the professions and civil service.

    The character-stripping rules for advancement in this pyramid anesthetize genius. Genuine artistic geniuses do not go to grad school, where conformism, collusion and incrementally becoming a toady are all rewarded. This pyramid molds a nation of diligent functionaries, time servers and careerists who don’t want to rock the boat. The table of new novels at the bookstore, the New York Times list of the 100 best books this century, contain the books you must read to advance within this world.

    For the hierarchies of greatness, it isn’t the professor or the critic or the journalist who makes a literary canon, but the builder or artist. Membership is determined by those who create.

    Among this crowd, there are books discussed as passionately at Silicon Valley house parties as French poets brawling over aesthetics in a Parisian café: The Diamond Age by Neal Stephenson, The Making of the Atomic Bomb by Richard Rhodes, The Beginning of Infinity by David Deutsch.

    Meanwhile, the established, respected, highbrow world of literature, the gatekeepers to the professions and the petty tyrants of the administrative state read their canon on a sinking Titanic.

    The future of American fiction is not in New York’s publishing houses, nor in the pages of the New York Times. It’s tribal and alive in the shadows, where stories are written not for prestige but for truth. It will belong to those who win.

    This article was originally published in The Spectator’s September 29, 2025 World edition.