Why I am confident the Champagne tariff will not last long

I have to begin this column with a glass of Pol Roger cuvée Winston Churchill. It’s fancy stuff, and — according to some — it’s a bit early in the day to be quaffing Champagne. 

“How early is too early?” I’ve often wondered that. The jury is out but most of the best authorities say that any time before actually awakening is too early.  

Why the shampoo (as David Niven was wont to denominate the beverage)? 

It seemed like the appropriate expedient in response to a bulletin I received from a Trump-skeptical friend. It came in over the headline, “Trump’s first mistake.” The body of the message was a Truth Social post from POTUS: 

The European Union, one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the World, which was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States, has just put a nasty 50% Tariff on Whisky. If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES. This will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.

The mistake, of course, came in the last sentence. The United States does not have a Champagne business. Only France has that, for the simple reason that Champagne is in France and only sparkling wines from that region are properly called “Champagne.” What the US has is a sparkling wine business. Some of those wines are made following the méthode champenoise (also called the “traditional method”), which involves an intricate process of vinification and of getting the bubbles into the wine.

It’s possible that I decided to pop the cork out of a sort of Pavlovian response to the word “Champagne” appearing in so prominent a place. Or maybe it was a self-protective reflex in response to the many missives I have received asking what I thought about Trump’s proposal to slap a 200 percent tariff the source of the beverage. Wasn’t I worried? Doesn’t it make me reconsider my support for the Bad Orange Man since his heedless deployment of his favorite word, “tariff,” is just about to cause me personal inconvenience? 

I actually am uncertain about the reason for my decision. Some will no doubt suggest that it was because of that eye-watering proposed tariff. But no, that is one thing I am sure did not figure into my thinking. A 200 percent tariff on European wine and spirits coming into the gigantic United States market would destroy most of those businesses. 

Since the instinct of self-preservation has not yet (not quite) been bred out of our European confrères, I conclude that they will shortly withdraw their 50 percent tariff on American-made whisky. They may do it quietly, to save face, but they will do it. Which means that I can enjoy my glass of Pol Roger secure in the knowledge that, expensive though it is now, it will not be getting more expensive any time soon.  

Another phrase that describes this gambit is “the art of the deal.” But then, you already knew that.