Tag: Alaska

  • Is Putin stringing Trump along with the promise of a Budapest summit?

    Is Putin stringing Trump along with the promise of a Budapest summit?

    Sorry, Volodymyr. There won’t be any Tomahawk missiles headed to Ukraine now that  President Vladimir Putin of Russia has talked on the phone with President Donald Trump, who called their session “very productive.”  

    What it will produce remains an open question. But it does seem to have resulted in a decision to hold an upcoming summit in Budapest. The bottom line: Putin has outflanked Ukrainian President Zelensky, who will meet at the White House with Trump tomorrow. 

    Trump is a transactional president and he has business that he wants to transact with Russia, including, but not limited to, a peace deal between it and Ukraine. If anything, Trump, intent on winning the Nobel Peace Prize that eluded him this year, appears to be on the verge of becoming a foreign-policy president. He’s hopscotching around the globe, trying to solve conflicts, wherever and whenever he can. Whether they are truly solved is another matter. For Trump the art of the deal is to secure one, no matter how precarious it may appear. Then move on to the next zone of conflict. 

    For Zelensky, Putin’s missive could not come at a worse time. Ukraine has been bathing in the warmer rays emanating from the Trump White House to it. Trump has repeatedly voiced his frustration with “Vladimir,” as he likes to call him, for refusing to end the war. Now Putin is once more dangling the bait of a ceasefire at the very moment that he is pounding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in preparation for what looks to be a very cold winter indeed. 

    Zelensky had been hoping to persuade Trump to up his game and confront Russia more openly. Since the Alaska summit, Trump has approved further cooperation between American and Ukrainian intelligence services, ensuring that they receive better targeting information to hit Russian energy infrastructure. But acceding to Tomahawk missiles, which can reach deep into Russia, would have escalated the conflict, particularly with the Kremlin threatening that it would erase the barrier to the nuclear threshold. Anyone who doesn’t get a case of the collywobbles from confronting that prospect should head directly to the local cinema and watch the new and sparkling film, A House of Dynamite, which offers a timely reminder of the destruction that one warhead can deliver. 

    Here’s hoping that Trump can forge some kind of viable agreement between the two sides, one that could lead to further cooperation on the nuclear arms-control front, where most of the agreements forged during and after the Cold War lie in tatters. Putin’s track record, of course, should hardly inspire much confidence. A master of the tactical move, the Russian President may well have intervened simply to stymie Trump from delivering more potent weapons to Ukraine. 

    Zelensky will be on his best behavior in meeting in Washington with a president who is desperate to reach some kind of accommodation with Putin. Throughout, Zelensky would do well to make favorable noises about peace and allow Putin to once more emerge as the recalcitrant party. It is Putin, and Putin alone, who has steadily been saying nyet to ending the conflict in his mad desire to reestablish the Russian empire of yore.

  • Putin has yet to make any real concessions

    Putin has yet to make any real concessions

    After the jaw-dropping spectacle of the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, there was another full day of theater on Monday as Trump hosted European leaders and President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. Yet the results of this three-day diplomatic pageant are embarrassingly modest.

    In the absence of a breakthrough on this important question, Trump’s diplomacy is little more than a fireworks show

    One of Trump’s trumpeted achievements is Russia’s alleged agreement to western security guarantees for Ukraine. It was President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff who first announced this breakthrough, with some fanfare, in an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper. “We sort of were able to… get an agreement,” Witkoff said, “that the United States could offer Article 5 protection [for Ukraine], which was the first time we had ever heard… the Russians agree to that.”

    The word “sort of” does a lot of heavy lifting here because Russia’s unprecedented concession is not a concession at all, or certainly not Russia’s concession. It is the United States that, ignoring Zelensky’s pleas, has refused to provide tangible security guarantees to Ukraine for fear that doing so could lead to a direct conflict with Russia. But, ever the salesman, Trump has managed to sell a US concession to Ukraine as Russia’s major concession and an indication that Putin is willing to talk peace.

    As for Putin, it remains to be seen what he has actually agreed to. During his joint press conference with Trump, the Russian President referred vaguely to the importance of assuring Ukraine’s security. “Of course, we are willing to work on this,” he offered.

    But it is important to remember that already in the spring of 2022, during the ill-fated talks in Istanbul, the Russians provisionally agreed to a security mechanism for Ukraine that would involve the United States and other western powers. However, Putin made it clear then that he expected to have the right to veto any collective action to help Ukraine. It is unclear whether this expectation was brought up during his brief interaction with Trump in Anchorage. Thus constrained, any US security guarantee would not be worth the paper it’s written on.

    The other major uncertainty pertains to Russia’s willingness (or not) to permit Western contingents in Ukraine as part of a peace settlement. Moscow has repeatedly rejected the idea of troops on the ground in Ukraine if these troops are from NATO member states.

    The latest rebuttal came even as Trump was meeting European leaders in Washington in the form of a scornful comment by the eccentric spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova who criticized Great Britain – which, along with France, has been one of the leaders of the so called “coalition of the willing” and has broached the subject of sending contingents to Ukraine – for “risky and ill-thought-through geopolitical gambits” and for trying to “obstruct the careful work of the Russian and American negotiators.”

    Helping Maria Zakharova’s case, President Trump has not been very forthcoming with concrete details of US participation. His message – as he put it in a joint press conference with President Zelensky – is that Europe would be “the first line of defense… but we’re gonna help them out also.” What that “help” may amount to remains to be seen. For now, at least, Trump’s security promise sounds rather hollow.

    So, the big question – what kind of security guarantees Russia has agreed to, and what kind of security guarantees the United States might be willing to offer – remains completely obscure. In the absence of a breakthrough on this important question, Trump’s diplomacy is little more than a fireworks show: it offers a momentary distraction from the grueling reality of war.

    Trump has now kicked the ball back over to the Russians and the Ukrainians. He expects Putin and Zelensky to meet in person and just work it out among themselves. In a middle-of-the-night phone call with Trump, Putin promised – per Russian readout – to “consider the possibility of raising the level of representatives of Ukrainian and Russian sides… participating in direct negotiations.” In the meantime, Russian forces continued pummeling targets across Ukraine.

    Putin has offered no concrete evidence that he is willing to make a deal on terms that would fall short of Ukraine’s capitulation. “If there aren’t concessions, if one side gets everything they want, that’s called surrender,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared on August 17, shortly after Alaska. But he has failed to show what concessions Putin has made. By all indications, Putin has promised nothing in the way of substance, yet just enough for Trump to drop all talk of “severe consequences” for Russia if he continued to drag his feet.

    Shortly before his meeting with European leaders, Trump was caught in a hot mic moment: “I think he wants to make a deal for me,” he said. “Do you understand? As crazy as it sounds.” Trump may be crazy to believe Putin’s good intentions, but he has had us all glued to TV screens in the hope that somehow, against all evidence to the contrary, he will in the end pull a rabbit out of the hat and finally deliver peace. There has been nothing in the hat so far.

  • Trump on best behavior in meetings with Zelensky and European leaders

    Trump on best behavior in meetings with Zelensky and European leaders

    It was back to black for Volodymyr Zelensky. After the Trump White House asked whether he was going to wear a suit for his Oval Office meeting, the Ukrainian President showed up in a dark military-style jacket, pleasing his hosts to no end. Even Brian Glenn, boyfriend of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene and reporter for Real America’s Voice, who had dissed Zelensky in February, commended him on his habiliments, declaring “you look fabulous in that suit.” Zelensky was pleased. So was Trump. 

    In fact, Trump was on his best behavior. After ranting earlier in the morning that he didn’t need all the experts to tell him what to think and that Ukraine should essentially prostrate itself before Russia, he avoided any verbal fisticuffs with Zelensky or talk about exiting NATO. Instead, Trump breathed optimism about where the negotiations, which he hopes will secure him a coveted Nobel Peace Prize, were headed. “I think it’s going to be when, not if,” Trump said about a trilateral meeting between him, Putin and Zelensky.  

    He may not have rolled out a red carpet for Zelensky when he arrived in Washington, as he did for Putin in Alaska, but he treated him with unwonted respect. According to Trump, “I have a feeling you and President Putin are going to work something out. Ultimately, this is a decision that can only be made by President Zelensky and by the people of Ukraine working also together in agreement with President Putin. And I just think that very good things are going to come of it.” 

    If the meeting with European leaders that took place later in the afternoon was anything to go by, Trump’s eupeptic push for a peace deal is not meeting with overt resistance. Quite the contrary. Zelensky indicated that territorial concessions would be discussed should he meet Putin. It was clever of Zelensky to put the onus back on Putin rather than rejecting out-of-hand the prospect of land swaps. “If we played this well, we could end this, and we have to end it,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said. Indeed, he called Trump’s offer of security guarantees for Ukraine a “breakthrough.” 

    What those guarantees would look like remains unclear. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who appears to have established a good working relationship with Trump, indicated that it was imperative to provide “Article 5-like guarantees” to Ukraine. What this will amount to is an open question – Germany announced today that it was already overstretched with its stationing of a Bundeswehr brigade in Lithuania and that it is unlikely to put any boots on the ground in Ukraine. 

    But the biggest obstacle to a peace deal, of course, is whether Putin even wants one. “President Putin wants to find an answer, too” Trump said. Does he? So far, as he launches fresh fusillades of missiles and drones at Ukraine, the Russian tyrant appears to believe that he has more to benefit from continuing rather than halting the war that he, and he alone, launched in February 2022. For all the bonhomie that existed between him and Trump in Alaska, it may be replaced by a more adversarial relationship in coming weeks should Putin maintain his obduracy about reaching an actual deal. 

  • The Alaska summit went much as expected

    The summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin ended predictably, without a ceasefire deal or, it seems, assent on much else. Trump said “Many points were agreed to, and there are just a very few that are left,” but failed to offer any details. Even if true, the leftovers are critical, and the gulf between the two governments on the war remains huge. Critically, Putin cares more about security than image or economics, and understandably believes that he would lose leverage by agreeing to halt military operations before winning the concessions he demands from Ukraine.

    Nevertheless, the summit improved, however slightly, the prospects for negotiating an end to the war. With Moscow on the offensive, a peace that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and independence requires that Kyiv talk with the Putin government. Diplomacy has stirred, however ineptly. Necessary now is getting Ukraine and Russia to negotiate, while encouraging both to be realistic. To end a conflict that is costing both sides dearly, Kyiv will have to lose territory and endure neutrality, while Moscow should accept a Ukraine that leans West politically and economically, though not militarily. Since battlefield success may have emboldened Putin, Trump should use the prospect of improving political relations and economic dealings with the West in an attempt to pull Moscow toward a compromise capable of delivering a stable peace.

  • The Trump-Putin Alaska summit was a nothingburger

    The Trump-Putin Alaska summit was a nothingburger

    The three-hour Friday summit in Alaska between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin ended as well as it conceivably could have ended: as a big nothingburger. But that does not mean that Ukraine and its supporters can breathe a sigh of relief. Trump may be unhappy that the prospect of his Nobel Peace Prize remains elusive as Putin has not agreed to an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. But it is far from clear that he will end up directing his anger against Russia.

    The US president neither understands nor cares about understanding Putin’s motives and the threat he poses to the world

    To be sure, it is a good thing that nothing of substance was agreed in Anchorage. Any big great-power bargain made over the heads of Europeans and Ukrainians, which Trump and Putin would then seek to impose on the hapless old continent, would mean the end of any semblance of a rules-based international order, in which borders of European nations are not redrawn by force.

    We can be reasonably confident that Putin would have been happy to agree to an immediate ceasefire in exchange for Ukraine meeting his maximalist demands – Ukraine’s capitulation, the ceding of territories that Russians do not yet control, or a prompt election to unseat Volodymyr Zelensky. The failure to reach a deal with Trump suggests that the US administration has not bought into Russia’s interpretation of the war and how to end it – at least not yet.

    The presence of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, once a Russia hawk, in the room might have played a role in preventing the worst-case outcome – unlike in Helsinki where the President was left with Putin unsupervised for several hours. Yet, “normie” Republicans must have felt more than a bit of shame about the spectacle that Trump orchestrated – the red carpet, the ride in the “Beast,” and the apparent warmth extended to a mass murderer and child kidnapper all reflect poorly on the United States – and help return Putin from pariah status to a respected global leader.

    Relatedly, while the summit did not bring about a catastrophe for Ukraine, neither is it likely to lead to better Ukraine policy in Washington. It is hard to imagine now a tightening of existing, congressionally mandated sanctions by the executive branch – never mind the bill put forward by Senators Graham and Blumenthal, imposing a de facto trade embargo on countries buying Russian oil and gas, getting through a Republican-controlled Senate. And, even if Trump does not stand in the way of military sales to Ukraine, it will have to be the Europeans who continue to do the financial heavy lifting – all while being held hostage by America’s sluggish defense industrial base.

    Finally, an ominous, ugly thought. In his remarks, Vladimir Putin warned Kyiv and European capitals against “throw[ing] a wrench” into the works of the emerging deal (whatever it may be) between Russia and the United States. Clearly, the Russian dictator is playing the long game here: hoping to peel off the United States away from the broader pro-Ukrainian coalition. By itself, the summit has not accomplished that goal yet, but it has likely opened new opportunities to lure Trump and his inner circle closer to Russia. Even before the summit, there was speculation about “money-making opportunities” that could bring the two world powers closer together.

    The presence of US Treasury and Commerce Secretaries, Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick, and Russia’s Kirill Dimitriev, the head of the country’s sovereign wealth fund – alongside “tremendous Russian business representatives,” as Trump put it – signaled a desire on both sides for normalization of “businesslike” relations. In practice, that might mean more investment, trade and other “deals” – especially ones that generate cash for the Trump family enterprise.

    What lies at heart of the summit is that the US President neither understands nor cares about understanding Putin’s motives and the threat he poses to the world. In contrast, Putin, a former KGB lieutenant colonel, has a solid grasp of what makes Trump and his entourage tick. He might make the occasional mistake and overplay his hand but he has focus, consistency and a voracious appetite. And all of those, wrapped in a thoroughly delusional view of the world and Russia’s place in it, were both on full display and unchallenged on Friday.

  • Vladimir Putin was the real winner of the Alaska summit

    Vladimir Putin was the real winner of the Alaska summit

    Vladimir Putin couldn’t stop smiling at the spectacle awaiting him in Anchorage yesterday, as American soldiers knelt to adjust a red carpet rolled out from his presidential plane. Donald Trump applauded as the Russian President walked towards him under the roar of fighter jets and stepped onto American soil for the first time in a decade. The pair shook hands for the cameras, ignoring a journalist who shouted, “Mr. Putin, will you stop killing civilians?” before riding off together in the presidential limo to the summit site. A royal reception, not a ceasefire, was what the international pariah had come out of his bunker for.

    Putin emerged from international isolation and was welcomed as a king rather than as an indicted war criminal

    After almost three hours of negotiations, Trump left Alaska with neither peace nor a deal. The lunch between the two delegations was canceled. The brief press conference allowed no questions from the media. A seemingly energetic Putin gave an eight-minute speech on the history of Alaska while Trump stared blankly into the void. On Ukraine, Putin called it a “brotherly nation,” hypocritically claiming that “everything that’s happening is a tragedy for us, a terrible wound.” He then repeated the need to eliminate the “root causes” of the war, signaling that Russia’s demands for Ukraine’s capitulation have not shifted.

    Yet there still seemed to be some sort of an agreement taking shape behind closed doors. Putin said he expected Kyiv and European capitals “will perceive it constructively and won’t throw a wrench in the works.” Trump said that “many points were agreed” and announced later in a Fox News interview that now it was up to Volodymyr Zelensky to “get it done.” Trump added that Ukraine would have to make territorial concessions, though Kyiv may not agree because Joe Biden “handed out money like it was candy.” Asked what advice he would give to Zelensky, Trump said: “Make a deal. Russia is a very big power. And they [the Ukrainians] are not.”

    Putin left the summit having achieved the goals he came for. He emerged from international isolation and was welcomed as a king rather than as an indicted war criminal. He left with plenty of photos alongside Trump for the Kremlin propaganda wing to talk about and contrast with pictures of Trump lecturing a humiliated Zelensky in the Oval Office in February. Russia also avoided further sanctions despite rejecting a ceasefire, with Trump promising once again that he might think about it in another “two or three weeks.”

    As for Trump, he has nothing to show for the meeting except for being laughed at in Russia and at home. Had there been progress, he would already be boasting about it, but he knows too little about the conflict he is trying to fix, and the stick he carried was too short to make Putin care. The summit labeled “Pursuing Peace” failed to achieve even a partial ceasefire. No trilateral meeting with Zelensky has been agreed. The war will grind on, soldiers will keep dying and Russia will continue bombing Ukrainian cities. All Trump has to offer is his refrain to Ukraine: make a deal – whatever that means.

  • Trump, Putin, and the hidden power of the Bering Strait

    Ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska to discuss Ukraine, President Trump said there would be “some land swapping.” He waxed lyrical about “prime real estate.” The summit’s location is a good example of land swaps and prime real estate and is in a region of growing geopolitical importance.  

    In 1867 Russia “swapped” Alaska for $7.2 million in a deal mocked as Seward’s Folly after Secretary of State William H. Seward who negotiated the exchange. It turned out to be a snip. Commercially viable oil was discovered three decades later and has brought in more than $180 billion in revenue since Alaska became a state in 1959.

    However, it’s not just the 49th state’s oil (and gas) which makes it so important, it’s the maxim which is so close to prime real estate agent’s hearts – “location, location, location.” Alaska sits on one side of the Bering Strait which separates the US from Russia. The Strait connects regions each country considers vital for trade and security – the North Pacific, and the Arctic. 

    Strategic thinking in Moscow increasingly views the entire Arctic coastline as a continuous domain stretching from Norway, across the top of Russia, and then down through the Bering Strait. The route links Russia’s Northern Fleet, based in Murmansk on the Arctic, to one of the main bases of its Pacific Fleet in Kamchatka. This is the Northern Sea Route, or NSR.

    The Arctic Ocean has begun to thaw seasonally, a trend expected to continue. This means the NSR is already navigable for cargo ships for at least three months a year without needing icebreakers. Ships taking this route from Asia to Europe can sail 5,000 fewer miles than via the Strait of Malacca and Suez Canal. Journey times are cut by at least ten days with concurrent savings in costs. The savings (including insurance) are even bigger if compared with the path around Cape Horn in Africa which some vessels now take due to the Houthis firing at ships in the Red Sea en route to Suez. 

    Russia charges vessels a tariff in parts of the NSR’s waters, all of which are within its Exclusive Economic Zone. Over the next few decades this source of revenue will increase concomitant with more frequent use, while Egypt will see a decline in fees for the Canal. The melting ice caps, and new shipping route, also make the Arctic’s untapped deposits of rare earth minerals, oil, and gas more accessible. The eight Arctic countries all hope to benefit from this but others, notably China, are also involved. 

    These are the reasons why more than a decade ago Russia began re-establishing its military power in the Arctic. It has reopened bases mothballed at the end of the Cold War and invested in new airfields, radar stations, and infantry equipped with “Arctic-proof” drones built to withstand the climate. 

    The Strait connects regions each country considers vital for trade and security – the North Pacific, and the Arctic

    This has drawn attention back to what was thought of as a conceptual relic of the Cold War – the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) Gap. This gateway to the Atlantic consists of the sea lanes the Russian Navy would need to pass through to strike targets in Europe or the Northeast American seaboard – hence President Trump’s interest in Greenland. The world’s largest island is the shortest route to the eastern parts of the US for Russian submarines and missiles. Controlling Greenland would allow the building of more radar stations and missile defense systems in addition to the Pituffik base which is home to part of US Space Force. It would also allow access to Greenland’s huge supplies of cobalt, uranium and lithium – metals upon which the Americans are overreliant on China. 

    It is to be hoped that President Trump knows some of this history and geography because the fate of Ukraine is connected to what happens in regions listed above. A victorious Russia would embolden Putin to continue pushing out in all directions – towards Moldova, the Baltics, Kazakhstan, and possibly even the Bering Strait. 

    The “Baker-Shevardnadze Line” across the Strait was agreed between the USSR and US in 1990. However, although Russia and the US later agreed that it marks their maritime border Russia never ratified the deal and said it would only observe it on a temporary basis.  Moscow is no position to seriously contest the line, or passage through the Strait, but may do in the future especially if it wins in Ukraine. There are even nationalist voices in Russia claiming Alaska is Russian and that the country was cheated out of its ownership. 

    However, Seward’s Folly is now a fully integrated part of the US, its economy, and its defense strategy, as reflected in the air bases and ballistic missile defense systems located in a state which is closer to Moscow than Washington, DC. As well as being keenly aware of the above, the US looks southward. So does Russia.

    The Aleutian Islands, for example, are part of Alaska and host some of America’s missile defense system. The chain stretches 1,000 miles across the southern part of the Bering Strait towards Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula – home to Russia’s Pacific Fleet submarines and long-range fighter jets. Further south is the Fleet’s main base in Vladivostok. Everything is connected, and the gateway to the Arctic is the Strait.

    It’s importance waxes and wanes, 56 million years ago the region was tropical. It’s heating up again, in many ways.

  • What Alaska means to Putin

    What Alaska means to Putin

    From the Kremlin’s point of view, holding a US-Russia summit in Anchorage, Alaska is an idea of fiendish brilliance. The venue itself determines the agenda. Literally half a world away from the petty concerns of the European continent, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin can flex the vastness of their respective countries. Anchorage is an eight-hour flight from Washington D.C. and roughly the same distance from Moscow, flying over no other country but Russia for most of the way. By traveling to the point where their countries almost touch in the North Pacific, both leaders can feel justified in prioritizing issues that concern just the two of them, from arms control treaties to space cooperation to Arctic mineral rights. Seen from Anchorage, Ukraine seems a very distant and very local problem. 

    The summit is the brainchild of Yuri Ushakov, a veteran diplomat who joined the USSR’s foreign ministry in 1970. Ushakov is a wily old attack dog who learned the ways of Washington during a decade-long stint as Russian ambassador from 1998 to 2008. And in suggesting Alaska as a meeting point, Ushakov clearly knows how to flatter not only Trump’s ego but also his own President’s obsession with history. 

    For Putin, Russia’s conquest of northeast Asia and much of the coast of America’s Pacific Northwest is the founding myth of his country’s modern greatness. In the 16th century Muscovy and Spain had both defeated Muslim occupiers and began expanding into rich new worlds east and west – in Spain’s case, gold-rich America; in Muscovy’s, fur-rich Siberia. Spanish conquistadors and Russian Cossacks reached the Pacific from different sides and started settling colonies along the coasts. In 1776, the Spanish Crown ordered the foundation of San Francisco – in the form of a Franciscan Mission and garrisoned Presidio – in direct response to news that Catherine the Great had started assembling a major Russian fleet to grab the unclaimed territory of northern California. In the event, Catherine’s fleet was redeployed to fight a war with the Swedes, leaving most of California to the Spanish. Who was to say who was the more logical ruler of America’s north-west coast, distant Madrid or distant St Petersburg?

    For Putin, Russia’s conquest of northeast Asia and much of the coast of America’s Pacific Northwest is the founding myth of his country’s modern greatness

    From 1816 until 1842 the southernmost frontier of the Russian empire was 70 miles north of San Francisco at Fort Ross on the Russian River (hence the name). For a brief period in the early 19th century Russia had a colony on Kaua’i island in Hawaii. And until 1867 the modern state of Alaska with its 6,500-mile coastline was known as Russian America and was a possession of the czar’s. 

    In the wake of the Crimean War, during which a Royal Navy force bombarded and briefly occupied the port of Petropavlovsk on Kamchatka, Czar Alexander II realized he lacked the naval power to maintain control of his American colonies. He first offered Russian America to the British prime minister Lord Palmerston for the eminently logical reason that the territory was contiguous with British Columbia. Palmerston, however, was uninterested in acquiring half a million square miles of mostly unexplored North American wilderness. The only other plausible buyer was the US. But it took two years, and the distribution of tens of thousands of dollars in bribes to congressmen, for the Russians to persuade a reluctant secretary of state, William Seward, to write a cheque for $7.2 million for the Alaska Purchase – mocked at the time as “Seward’s Folly.” 

    Even today, Alaska still bears the stamp of its century and a half as part of the Russian empire. A third of Alaska’s population is Native American (by far the largest proportion of any US state) and most of the Aleut and Tlingit peoples still adhere to the Russian Orthodox faith. The major feature of every coastal town from Sitka to Kodiak is a distinctively Russian church, and there are communities of black-robed monks on out-lying islands – though most are Americans and their services are in English. Colonial echoes of Britain, France and Spain are commonplace in other countries, whether Anglican worshippers in Simla, French baguettes in Saigon or Spanish missions in California. Living echoes of a vanished Russian empire are much rarer and exist mostly in Alaska. 

    It is clearly flattering and heartwarming for Putin to meet his American counterpart on what was once Russian territory. Some more excitable western commentators have claimed that hosting a summit in Anchorage encourages Putin’s neo-imperial ambitions – including, supposedly, reclaiming the American lands sold by Alexander II. But the idea that “Alaska Nash” (Alaska is Ours) is anything other than a Russian pub joke is absurd. A roadside billboard bearing that slogan and featuring a map of Russia including all of Alaska has been doing the rounds of Twitter as supposed evidence of Putin’s revanchism. In fact it’s just a jokey advertisement for a real estate company called Alaska. 

    Rather than dog-whistling Russian imperialism, the location allows Putin to appeal to a bygone age of Russian-American cooperation where the two nations divided up large swaths of the world. The most recent example is, to Putin’s mind, the Yalta conference of February 1945 where Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill pored over maps and divided spheres of influence in the crumbling Nazi empire. A similar carve-up of Ukrainian territory is exactly what Volodymyr Zelensky fears and he has spent the week since the summit was announced gathering European support to insist that no deal can be done over the heads of the Ukrainians. 

    Unfortunately for Kyiv, and for the Europeans, they’re not invited. It’s also highly likely that even if Putin and Trump reach some kind of a deal on a ceasefire, it will be largely on Russia’s terms. But it’s also possible that Moscow and Washington could agree on other, non-Ukraine related issues, such as getting Putin back on board with the New START treaty limiting the number of deployed nuclear weapons – the kind of deal that nuclear superpowers make between each other. And there is nothing that both Putin and Trump enjoy more than playing the role of imperial presidents.