Tag: Greenland

  • The case for MAGA imperialism

    Empire has always been part of the American tradition. We are a sequel state to the greatest empire in world history. Our period of colonial tutelage under that empire taught the lessons of legitimate territorial expansion against French and Spanish rivals. Our continental aggrandizement after independence was necessary. Later overseas expansion, including periods of imperial apprenticeship in places such as Liberia, the Philippines and Panama, was further evidence of our colonial métier. Like it or not, imperialism and colonialism are congenital to the American experiment. This has been the case since 1779, when the Continental Congress branded a proposal to limit westward expansion an “intolerable despotism.” Since then, our imperial project has experienced constant cycles of confidence and self-doubt. Fair-weather friends – such as Niall Ferguson and Max Boot – scamper for the exit when times are tough. But history shows the need to stay the course. Making America great again will require the United States to take up its old vocation.

    The Trump administration inherits two of the most critical imperial roles that we currently undertake: the defense of Taiwan and the defense of Israel, two countries that are, properly speaking, imperial dependents: without American support they would not exist. So far, the US has borne those responsibilities admirably. But the past six months have shown that a more avowedly imperial policy represents the best means of advancing the national interest. Donald Trump’s highlighting of the misgovernance of Greenland and the Panama Canal region has been energizing through its cold-blooded pragmatism. The US has had interests in these jurisdictions for decades, but it was only the credible threat of imperial annexation that could extract the concessions made by Panama and the Danish Crown.

    Similarly, the revival of the very old idea of a North American union with Canada has been a jolt in the arm to our listless northern neighbor. It has elected a conservative in all but name as prime minister, is boosting defense spending to bear its fair share of the NATO burden, and is reinforcing the porous border that it long ignored. Mass immigration is being checked and fiscal balance taken seriously. We could not suffer our northern border becoming some semi-failed European welfare state with colorful socks, and it was only our threat to revise the verdict of 1812 that has forestalled this.

    Still outstanding on the overseas front is how to reconstruct Gaza into a stable and humane enclave which has been fumigated of terrorists. Trump (and Israel) recognize that there is no going back to Palestinian self-governance. Much as 60,000 Lebanese demanded a restoration of French rule after a port explosion leveled Beirut in 2020, there is a case for a restored western mandate in Gaza led by the US. Making America great again requires the US to take up these new loads of the “enlightened man’s burden” (which is apparently what Rudyard Kipling meant when he spoke of “the white man’s burden”) lest we fail in our historic mission as provider of ordered rule to places of strategic significance. The US military has been quietly building up its ranks and training civil affairs officers since being caught with its domestic governance pants down in Iraq and Afghanistan. The sooner the Trump administration initiates the project, the better. Lessons learned from the successful colonial occupation of Iraq and the failed one in Afghanistan can be applied. In time, a self-governing enclave could emerge.

    The other outstanding overseas imperial calling is in Yemen. The country has been a failed state since the British fled from their shrinking perimeter in Aden in 1967. The United Arab Emirates set up a de facto colonial regime in Aden in 2017, the Southern Transitional Council. It is now part of a larger, Saudi-orchestrated governing body for the non-Houthi areas of Yemen, the Presidential Leadership Council. Both are supported by the UN as well as the EU. Now that Iran’s ability to support the chaos in the rest of the country has been weakened, there is an opportunity for the US to form a governing coalition for the country as a whole with Abraham Accords partners. This would secure the maritime route through the Suez Canal and bring further security to both Saudi Arabia and Israel. That would be an imperial mission to applaud.

    Finally, there is the pressing question of restoring American rule in the US itself. The US-Mexico border that was delineated in 1848 never acted as a barrier to illegal immigration. Since then, tens of millions of people from around the world have used the southern border to colonize themselves as US subjects. But colonialism must be in the gift of the colonizer, not the colonized. Aside from a stronger border and an end to birthright citizenship, our growing imperial capacities must play a role here. The imperial waystation in South Sudan that the Supreme Court declared legal in early July, as well as our use of El Salvador for the same purpose, are examples of how our imperial network abroad can be used to protect our imperial gains at home.

    A more robust defense of our imperial story is also the best way to fight the “decolonizing” impulse at home. The great decolonizer Barack Obama represented a break with the long tradition of black patriotism since the American founding. The “return to Africa” neo-segregation of black communities that this encouraged could only be a farce since black people have no actual interest in decolonizing themselves from white communities.

    More serious was Obama’s encouragement of Native American separation and its entailed obliteration of American imperial history on the continent. Under the Obama and then Biden administrations, the entire Department of the Interior gave itself over to “decolonizing” American land management in favor of “Native American” groups. What is required now is to develop a robust legal strategy to combat this steady erosion of the republic.

    The US became an empire because most actual Indians, as with most California and Texas Mexicans, most Spanish Floridians and, later, most Filipinos and South Vietnamese and South Koreans, preferred American rule to the available “indigenous” alternatives. The Taiwanese prefer US suzerainty to rule by China and Israel certainly prefers it to erasure. The American experiment has been an imperial one from the very first; the sooner we affirm this – at home as well as abroad – the better.

  • Trump, Putin, and the hidden power of the Bering Strait

    Ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska to discuss Ukraine, President Trump said there would be “some land swapping.” He waxed lyrical about “prime real estate.” The summit’s location is a good example of land swaps and prime real estate and is in a region of growing geopolitical importance.  

    In 1867 Russia “swapped” Alaska for $7.2 million in a deal mocked as Seward’s Folly after Secretary of State William H. Seward who negotiated the exchange. It turned out to be a snip. Commercially viable oil was discovered three decades later and has brought in more than $180 billion in revenue since Alaska became a state in 1959.

    However, it’s not just the 49th state’s oil (and gas) which makes it so important, it’s the maxim which is so close to prime real estate agent’s hearts – “location, location, location.” Alaska sits on one side of the Bering Strait which separates the US from Russia. The Strait connects regions each country considers vital for trade and security – the North Pacific, and the Arctic. 

    Strategic thinking in Moscow increasingly views the entire Arctic coastline as a continuous domain stretching from Norway, across the top of Russia, and then down through the Bering Strait. The route links Russia’s Northern Fleet, based in Murmansk on the Arctic, to one of the main bases of its Pacific Fleet in Kamchatka. This is the Northern Sea Route, or NSR.

    The Arctic Ocean has begun to thaw seasonally, a trend expected to continue. This means the NSR is already navigable for cargo ships for at least three months a year without needing icebreakers. Ships taking this route from Asia to Europe can sail 5,000 fewer miles than via the Strait of Malacca and Suez Canal. Journey times are cut by at least ten days with concurrent savings in costs. The savings (including insurance) are even bigger if compared with the path around Cape Horn in Africa which some vessels now take due to the Houthis firing at ships in the Red Sea en route to Suez. 

    Russia charges vessels a tariff in parts of the NSR’s waters, all of which are within its Exclusive Economic Zone. Over the next few decades this source of revenue will increase concomitant with more frequent use, while Egypt will see a decline in fees for the Canal. The melting ice caps, and new shipping route, also make the Arctic’s untapped deposits of rare earth minerals, oil, and gas more accessible. The eight Arctic countries all hope to benefit from this but others, notably China, are also involved. 

    These are the reasons why more than a decade ago Russia began re-establishing its military power in the Arctic. It has reopened bases mothballed at the end of the Cold War and invested in new airfields, radar stations, and infantry equipped with “Arctic-proof” drones built to withstand the climate. 

    The Strait connects regions each country considers vital for trade and security – the North Pacific, and the Arctic

    This has drawn attention back to what was thought of as a conceptual relic of the Cold War – the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) Gap. This gateway to the Atlantic consists of the sea lanes the Russian Navy would need to pass through to strike targets in Europe or the Northeast American seaboard – hence President Trump’s interest in Greenland. The world’s largest island is the shortest route to the eastern parts of the US for Russian submarines and missiles. Controlling Greenland would allow the building of more radar stations and missile defense systems in addition to the Pituffik base which is home to part of US Space Force. It would also allow access to Greenland’s huge supplies of cobalt, uranium and lithium – metals upon which the Americans are overreliant on China. 

    It is to be hoped that President Trump knows some of this history and geography because the fate of Ukraine is connected to what happens in regions listed above. A victorious Russia would embolden Putin to continue pushing out in all directions – towards Moldova, the Baltics, Kazakhstan, and possibly even the Bering Strait. 

    The “Baker-Shevardnadze Line” across the Strait was agreed between the USSR and US in 1990. However, although Russia and the US later agreed that it marks their maritime border Russia never ratified the deal and said it would only observe it on a temporary basis.  Moscow is no position to seriously contest the line, or passage through the Strait, but may do in the future especially if it wins in Ukraine. There are even nationalist voices in Russia claiming Alaska is Russian and that the country was cheated out of its ownership. 

    However, Seward’s Folly is now a fully integrated part of the US, its economy, and its defense strategy, as reflected in the air bases and ballistic missile defense systems located in a state which is closer to Moscow than Washington, DC. As well as being keenly aware of the above, the US looks southward. So does Russia.

    The Aleutian Islands, for example, are part of Alaska and host some of America’s missile defense system. The chain stretches 1,000 miles across the southern part of the Bering Strait towards Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula – home to Russia’s Pacific Fleet submarines and long-range fighter jets. Further south is the Fleet’s main base in Vladivostok. Everything is connected, and the gateway to the Arctic is the Strait.

    It’s importance waxes and wanes, 56 million years ago the region was tropical. It’s heating up again, in many ways.