Tag: Tariffs

  • Donald Trump’s affordability blues

    Donald Trump’s affordability blues

    So President Donald Trump may have dozed off during his cabinet meeting on Tuesday. Who could blame him? Listening to Secretary of State Marco Rubio drone on about Russia would prompt souls less hardy than Trump to catch some shuteye. 

    What should be keeping Trump awake, or at least uneasy, is the shaky state of the American economy. The federal government may not be releasing much data about the economy, but the payroll processing company ADP is reporting that private employers cut 32,000 jobs last month. The losses were heavily concentrated among small employers who have been slammed by Trump’s capricious tariff policy. The only positive sign has been in the data center industry, where investments in AI have been fueling stock market gains. A recent Fox News poll indicated that 76 percent of voters view the economy negatively and that twice as many blame Trump as Biden. 

    When he’s not hosting foreign dignitaries or playing golf or discussing the architectural plans for his ornate new ballroom or anathematizing media organizations with a “Hall of Shame” on the White House website, Trump has been grasping at whatever straws he can to try and prop up the economy. On Tuesday, Trump mused about appointing his economic advisor Kevin Hassett as Federal Reserve chairman in the expectation that he will push for radically lower interest rates – a move that might briefly juice the economy but would also send inflation soaring. 

    On Wednesday, he took a fresh swipe at former president Joe Biden’s Green New Deal policies by rolling back fuel standards, a measure that the American Petroleum Institute has been advocating. That may benefit Ford and GM in the short term but exacerbates their dependence on gasoline cars that are being phased out abroad. Add in the tariffs that Trump is imposing and American industry could become increasingly unable to compete abroad. 

    A sign of the vexation that businesses are feeling towards Trump came with retail giant Costco’s announcement this past Friday that it intends to sue the administration over its tariffs. For the most part, big business has tried to placate rather than confront Trump. No longer. Bumble Bee Foods and Ray-Bans, among others, are already suing Trump. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court appears likely to rule that Trump’s tariffs are unconstitutional.  

    Nothing could boost the economy more than a sweeping verdict that abolishes them. But the administration remains fixated with Herbert Hoover economics – retaining tariffs, whenever and wherever possible. If the Supreme Court rules against it, then “we can recreate the exact tariff structure with [sections] 301, with 232, with 122,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview at the New York Times DealBook Summit.  

    Trump himself has been touting a $2,000 tariff dividend that would be paid to Americans. But Fortune notes that the math doesn’t add up. It would cost roughly twice as much as the tariffs have raised to disburse a dividend. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the dividend check would cost $600 billion a year – or $6 trillion over a period of 10 years. 

    Trump, a serial bankrupt, is not unaccustomed to financial obstacles. But his struggles with the economy are starting to tax his skills at political prestidigitation. As prices go up and jobs go down, Trump has made it clear that he doesn’t like what people are saying. “They just say the word,” he said during his cabinet meeting. “It doesn’t mean anything to anybody. They just say it – affordability. I inherited the worst inflation in history. There was no affordability. Nobody could afford anything.” They still can’t. 

  • Howard’s beginning: the luck of Lutnick

    With Elon Musk no longer sleeping in a cot in Washington, only one member of the White House inner circle comes close to matching Donald Trump’s net worth: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Commerce is usually a mid-tier cabinet post; even fervent political observers would be hard-pressed to name previous officeholders. But Lutnick has been one of Trump’s most impactful advisors in this second term. His ideas about tariffs have greatly affected the world’s economy, and have influenced Trump’s mercurial tariff pronouncements. Plus, he’s worth about $3 billion himself. Even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, himself a billionaire, is only worth about half as much.

    Lutnick made his name as CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, a major New York financial services company. After hundreds of Cantor employees, including Lutnick’s brother, died in the 9/11 attacks, Lutnick rebuilt the company and provided support to the families of the victims, which amounted to two-thirds of the company’s workforce. Trump later called Lutnick “the embodiment of resilience in the face of unspeakable tragedy.”

    The two met in 2008, when Lutnick appeared on an episode of Trump’s TV show The Apprentice, but Lutnick wasn’t part of the conversation during the Donald’s first term. By the end of that term, he’d become a major Trump donor, and he stuck by Trump during the years of impeachment, the January 6 rebellion and exile. Lutnick is credited with raising $75 million for Trump’s 2024 capaign – and Trump rewarded Lutnick by making him co-chair of the presidential transition team.

    Trump’s nomination of Lutnick for Commerce met with controversy and resistance. One critic called it “totally sketchy” and others said that Cantor Fitzgerald’s vast interconnected business ties made it impossible for Lutnick to be an impartial bureaucrat. “Howard has gotten out way over his fucking skis on this,” a senior Republican official told Politico.

    The ballooning cryptocurrency industry was a particular space of concern, given Cantor Fitzgerald’s relationship with the controversial crypto company Tether, which issues a stablecoin tied to the value of the US dollar. Trump, who himself was about to make a vast fortune in crypto, hardly seemed to care, vowing to turn the US into “the crypto capital of the planet.” Who better to do that than Lutnick? “There’s nobody more loyal and capable than Howard,” Trump said.

    Given that tariffs are the shining centerpiece of Trump 2.0’s economic program, it’s not surprising that Lutnick supports them wholeheartedly. For him, tariffs are not just economic tools, but weapons that the government can use to affect national security and industrial policy. In an April interview with CNBC, he touted tariffs as the key element in transforming the American economy and was thrilled that a president, for once, was listening to him.

    “When I say to him we want fair trade, we want to be treated the way we deserve to be treated, that’s what’s happening now,” Lutnick said. “Finally, someone is behind the desk who is going to protect America. It feels great.”

    On tariffs, trade and industrial policy, Lutnick sounds so much like Trump it’s hard to tell where one man’s monologue ends and the other’s begins. “The rest of the world’s markets have been taking advantage of the trading policy,” he told CNBC. “Our policies were designed to make you rich and make us poor.” It’s been a non-stop tariff blitz for months. Back in April, Lutnick said on CBS’s Face the Nation, “The tariffs are coming. [Trump] announced it – and he wasn’t kidding. The tariffs are coming. Of course they are.” On Newsmax around the same time, he said “tariffs are not inflation. It is outrageous that people think tariffs are inflation.”

    In an economy run by two of America’s richest men, it’s hard to focus on, say, Lutnick’s efforts to onshore US semiconductor production. Tariffs take up all the oxygen. “Trump wants the people of America to appreciate these tariffs,” Lutnick said on Fox Business in November, “If he puts money into their pockets, they’ll better understand how important this is for America.” And there’s a literal plan to put money into the pockets of Americans, with the administration proposing a “tariff dividend” of $2,000. Why, with that, Americans could buy nearly 1/20th of a Bitcoin! “Yes, it’s going to make the country stronger,” Lutnick said.

    Then there’s the matter of Lutnick’s sons. In May, he transferred his ownership shares in Cantor Fitzgerald to his four children. His “economic benefits” have ceased but the family still runs the firm – and Bloomberg said, “the grip on his businesses is bolted tight.” Lutnick’s son Brandon is CEO and chairman and another Kyle, is executive vice-chairman. They’ve out-Successionedeven the Trump family. Brandon Lutnick is leaning hard into special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, for crypto, even while his father pushes the President to establish a national crypto reserve.

    “President Trump’s billionaire Commerce Secretary has been playing the ultimate Washington insider game to pad his family’s riches,” left-wing watchdog site Accountable.US said earlier this year. While it’s true the Lutnicks won’t be qualifying for a $2,000 tariff dividend check, it remains to be seen whether or not all boats rise with theirs.

    Once upon a time, Kyle Lutnick was an aspiring rapper who performed under the name “Kxtz.” Though it appears he’s moved on, one residual lyric still seems relevant: “Until I run the game, I’ve got everything to gain.” But now Kxtz has put aside childish things. In November, Bloomberg reported that Cantor Fitzgerald was about to post a 2025 annual revenue of $2.5 billion, an all-time high and 25 percent more than the previous reporting period. “When you have a titan of industry and an indomitable personality like Howard, who was here for 40 years and ran the firm for 30 years, it can leave a significant vacuum when he leaves,” a Cantor official said. “The whole firm stepped up… and that’s because of Brandon. That’s because of Kyle as well.” The rich, it seems, are getting richer.

    This article was originally published in The Spectator’s December 8, 2025 World edition.

  • Can Trump control inflation?

    Can Trump control inflation?

    Notionally, Americans have never been better off. The ructions in tech stocks over the past few weeks cannot detract from the fact that the US economy has been outgunning other developed economies all century.

    The overall graph of real disposable income for Americans continues to trend upward, almost as if the sharp dip during the pandemic had not happened. That is certainly not true everywhere: in many countries, Covid has been followed by stagnation in GDP and wages. Yet, for all the wealth generated, many Americans simply do not feel that they are living in a thriving country. On the things that really matter, such as basic living costs, citizens at the lower end of the income scale feel their wages are increasingly inadequate.

    They are not imagining it. Figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show, for example, that the cost of staple goods in New York City – where a Democratic socialist has just been elected mayor – has outstripped wages since 2021. Rent, food, recreation: all are less affordable now than four years ago, and there has certainly been no relief in the past 12 months. Just about the only basic service which has not outstripped wages in New York is healthcare, but that may soon change.

    A surge in global food and energy prices afflicted the entire world after the pandemic as supply chains recovered from disruption; in the US, which has unashamedly championed a policy of national energy security over cuts to carbon emissions, and done so under several different presidents, the effect was very much less drastic than in climate-change-driven Europe.

    Donald Trump has made driving down energy prices one of the core missions of his presidency. Yet some of the blame for higher prices can be laid at Trump’s door. His imposition of increasingly higher tariffs on most imports has raised extra tax revenue without a direct cost to US citizens, but not without an indirect cost, which is inflation running at 3 percent over the past 12 months. Nor have tariff wars achieved their principal objective: to preserve industrial jobs. While the US economy continues to create jobs at an impressive rate, manufacturing is the exception in having shed 78,000 payrolled jobs in the year to August. On the other hand – and ironically, given the President’s efforts to shrink federal government – the overall number of government jobs has increased by 138,000.

    On the back of the rising cost of living came a six-week government shutdown. It is one thing to champion smaller government, quite another to provoke a situation where, for example, planes cannot take off because air traffic controllers are not being paid. However great the waste that needs to be trimmed, government needs to function. Again, Trump should not take the entire blame for the shutdown – Democratic posturing was arguably more responsible. But many will see him at fault whether he likes it or not. When you advocate combative politics, you must expect the other side to play the same game.

    Trump may want to wave away the victory of a left-wing mayoral candidate in a liberal-minded city full of Democrat activists – even if it is his own city. His political heartland lies elsewhere, in the Rust Belt and in Midwestern states. But he would be ill-advised to dismiss a mayoral election which was won and lost over the cost of living – and well-advised to pay close attention to the easy Democratic victories on November 3. In Virginia and New Jersey, as in New York, candidates campaigned on “affordability” and were handsomely rewarded with large majorities. The greatest argument for capitalism is that it works in practice, not just in the minds of idealists. But ordinary people in ordinary jobs must be able to imagine a world in which it is possible for them to be able to better themselves with their monthly paychecks. If they are to be retained as supporters of capitalism, there must be a means by which they can acquire capital. If voters feel they are going backward, then the vaulting success of the stock market or the tech sector can feel like an insult.

    The rising cost of living is not an argument for confiscatory socialist policies such as wealth taxes, nor for interventionist measures such as rent controls. These have been tried in many countries and have failed every time.

    But there is another failed interventionist policy which is partly responsible for the pain that is being felt by many households: punitive tariffs on imported goods. And while Trump’s proposal for a $2,000 tariff “dividend” for every American (excluding high-net worth individuals) might help mitigate the pain, it’s unlikely to prove popular in the long term if American manufacturing does not start to thrive dramatically.

    The President has proved wrong all those who predicted economic Armageddon. The economy has continued to grow. But he seems largely to have ignored the fact that manufacturing businesses are themselves consumers of imported materials and components. Place punitive tariffs on those and you drive up their costs.

    The arguments between free traders and protectionists have become old and stale. But it’s foolish for the Trump administration to pretend that it can impose radically high “surcharges,” as it prefers to call them, on imports without hurting American businesses and consumers. As Bridget Phetasy notes, the Biden administration made the great mistake of insisting to voters that inflation was “transitory” when it was not. It would be a grave mistake for Trump 2.0 to repeat the error.

    This article was originally published in The Spectator’s November 24, 2025 World edition.

  • Is Trump becoming a lame duck?

    Is Trump becoming a lame duck?

    No sooner did Democrats in the Senate reach a deal to end the federal government shutdown than a frenzy of liberal pearl clutching ensued. The Democrats should have held out longer, they argued. Healthcare subsidies could have been rescued. Donald Trump’s approval ratings were plunging. Golly, maybe the Democrats could even have driven the dreaded Trump from office? Jonathan Chait’s verdict in the Atlantic was not untypical: “Senate Democrats just made a huge mistake.”

    Don’t believe a word of it. The surprising thing isn’t that Democrats folded. It’s that they held out as long as they did. In the end, the moderate Democratic Senators, ranging from Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman to Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto, made the right call. Here’s the deal: ending the government shutdown puts the focus back squarely on Trump – and his failure to deal with a faltering economy and rising healthcare costs. Add in the fact that the Epstein files will now likely be released as the House of Representatives goes back into session and you have turbulent political seas awaiting Trump. Can the President safely steer his administration through them?

    Some of Trump’s key supporters are starting to get queasy. Exhibit A is a fiery excoriation from Sunday night on X issued by one of the President’s most prominent supporters in the Maga media – Sean Davis, the co-founder of the Federalist. After contending that congressional Republicans have no real accomplishments or plans, Davis laid into someone who is usually exempted from such criticisms by MAGA world: Trump himself. According to Davis: “Trump needs to ditch the foreign policy crap and focus all his attention on the domestic economy, which is still not working for the majority of people. Right now he looks weak and rudderless. Be mad all you want, but it’s the truth.”

    The truth is that Trump has in many ways become a foreign policy president. He’s been hosting a stream of foreign visitors, including from Central Asia this past week. He’s also handed out a $40 billion subvention to his Argentine chum Javier Milei, while failing to assist farmers in America who have been whacked by his tariffs. Instead, he’s engaged in happy talk about how prosperity is just around the corner. As Davis observed: “Newly minted college grads can’t find work and are saddled with debt. Where is their path to the American dream right now? Who is giving them a vision of a future worth fighting for?”

    This past weekend, I spoke with a mother whose 24-year-old son earned double degrees in mathematics and computer science and is now living in Manhattan – where he works as a rock-climbing instructor and scrapes by living in an efficiency apartment that costs $2,400 a month to rent. Small wonder that a socialist like Zohran Mamdani cruised to victory as mayor of New York.

    For his part, Trump appears to be living increasingly in the past. He dozed off in the Oval Office three days ago. Now his latest move is to preemptively pardon 77 of his supporters, including former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and lawyer John Eastman, for their support of his efforts to upend the 2020 presidential election. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt declared, “President Trump is putting an end to the Biden regime’s communist tactics once and for all.”

    Hmm. Actually, it is figures on the right who are starting to sound the red alert. On the RealClear Politics news site, for example, Hoover Institution fellow Peter Berkowitz warned that the kerfuffle over the Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts’ defense of Tucker Carlson for interviewing the Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes could damage the conservative cause. According to Berkowitz: “Tucker Carlson’s cozying up to Holocaust downplayers, Nazi apologists, Stalin enthusiasts, and rank anti-Semites – along with Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts’ October 30 insistence that conservatism’s big tent is big enough to embrace those who hate Jews and fawn over murderous tyrants – widened a parlous rift on the right.”

    Internal fights are one thing. But the economy is what could take down a president who declared in his second inaugural speech that he would usher in nothing less than a triumphant new golden age in America. With the Supreme Court poised to strike down his tariffs, Trump is starting to look like a lame duck and the 2026 midterm elections loom larger than ever. As the government reopens, the battle between Trump and the Democrats may only have begun.

  • Is Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividend plan loopy?

    Is Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividend plan loopy?

    It’s becoming increasingly taxing for Donald Trump to defend his tariff policy. His latest gambit is to float the prospect of a $2,000 rebate to Americans from the tens of billions that the federal government has collected in tariffs. But will this prove any more successful than his previous attempts to justify his loopy tariffs?

    With the Supreme Court apparently poised to strike down his tariffs as a form of revenue collection designed to perform an end-run around Congress, Trump is scrambling. As usual, bravado prevails. On Sunday, he declared, “A dividend of at $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone,” the president said on Truth Social.” Trump also dismissed his detractors as “FOOLS!” In his view, “We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place.”

    What specific factories Trump meant was left unsaid. The truth is that a small coterie of tech firms is driving the American economy by building AI centers. To fund them, companies are relying on exotic debt-financed options. If that bubble pops, it could be 2008 all over again – or worse.

    Speculation about a 1929 redux is on the rise. Former Securities and Exchange Commission official William A. Birdthistle notes that Trump has been “has been firing regulators and vigorously tearing down the guardrails that have kept our markets thriving for nine decades.” As he bellows about the efficacy of high tariffs, Trump himself seems intent on replicating the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff which ensured that America tumbled even deeper into the Great Depression. At least Smoot-Hawley was passed by Congress. Trump is doing it singlehandedly while Republican lawmakers cower in fear at the consequences.

    The difficulty for Trump is that in promising an economic boom, he has highlighted his responsibility for inflation and unemployment. Voters, as the recent election showed, remain as unhappy about the economy as they were during the Biden era, when the White House also issued a steady stream of happy talk. In July 2021 Biden dismissed the notion that inflation would prove to be a persistent problem: “Our experts believe, and the data shows, that most of the price increases we’ve seen are expected to be temporary.”

    Speaking at the American Business Forum in Miami this past Wednesday, Trump insisted that nothing less than an ”economic miracle” was taking place under his leadership. He also invoked his favorite adverb, tremendously, to state that “Americans are doing tremendously now.” A day later, he said, “I don’t want to hear about affordability” – a line that is certain to feature in Democratic campaign ads. Trump is also touting a new Walmart Thanksgiving meal as 25 percent cheaper than last year, but it also has six fewer items than the 2024 basket. The most recent consumer price index shows that grocery prices were up 2.7 percent in September compared to a year ago. So much for whipping inflation now.

    Then there is the government shutdown. Disrupting air travel, terminating SNAP benefits and allowing health insurance premiums to soar even as Trump sends billions to Argentina is hardly a recipe for promoting economic growth. Some Republicans are getting antsy. “We need to deal with [health care] now because, number one, it’s the right thing to do, just morally,” New Jersey Congressman Jeff Van Drew said on Fox this past Wednesday.” “Number two, we’re going to get killed” in the 2026 midterm elections.

    But Trump has other concerns. On Friday night, he threw another opulent gala event for his chums at Mar-a-Lago, complete with opera singers and ice sculptures. As Republican lawmakers fret about their futures, Trump continues to party on.

  • Will the Supreme Court force Trump to repay tariffs?

    Will the Supreme Court force Trump to repay tariffs?

    The most important thing to know about the Trump administration’s defense of its hotly contested use of tariffs to bring allies and opponents to heel is not that it is a novel and unprecedented legal argument but rather a full-throated articulation of the campaign themes that got the president elected – in both 2016 and 2000.

    In its legal documents, and in the oral arguments that took place before the Supreme Court Wednesday, the Trump administration paints a picture of America under siege.

    Once thriving industrial towns in the Midwest hollowed out. Factories dismantled as supply chains have been moved offshore. Hostile foreign nations flooding the US with drugs and once productive workers turning to opioids and alcohol for solace as opportunities slip away.

    If there is such a thing as a populist legal argument, the Trump administration is making it in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump. And as if to up the stakes, the administration is predicting an economic catastrophe if the court moves to curtail Trump’s ability to impose tariffs without congressional signoff.

    “The President… has determined (tariffs) are necessary to rectify America’s country-killing trade deficits and to stem the flood of fentanyl and other lethal drugs across our borders,” the administration argues in court papers. “With tariffs, we are a rich nation; without tariffs, we are a poor nation.”

    Indeed, the President has placed so much emphasis on the outcome of the case that he suggested for a short time that he might attend Wednesday’s hearing before backing off the idea.

    What is most striking about Trump’s tariff regime, and his assumption that Congress grants the president broad authority to bypass a complex regulatory framework that has been in place largely undisturbed for decades is the underlying modus operandi.

    Trump would likely never articulate it this way but his style in imposing tariffs is of a piece with much else he has undertaken – the shakeup of government agencies through DoGE, his unorthodox execution of foreign policy and his wholesale remaking of the Republican party. Move fast and break things, as they say in Silicon Valley.

    Whether his claim that the president has unfettered authority to impose tariffs will win the day wasn’t entirely clear from the colloquy between the justices and US Solicitor General John Sauer who made the argument for the administration. Both conservative and liberal justices peppered Sauer with questions that focused on the administration’s assertion Congress had delegated tariff making authority to the president in times of national emergency.

    They seemed skeptical that Congress had ceded that power, but later in the hearing conservatives Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett posed equally sharp questions of Neal Katyal, a former US solicitor general representing businesses suing to overturn the tariffs. Kavanaugh seemed concerned that blocking the president from unilaterally imposing tariffs on foreign made goods would conflict with the power granted the president under Article II of the Constitution to conduct foreign policy.

    It would be logically inconsistent for the law to grant the president the power to impose trade embargoes, as it apparently does, while barring the president from imposing tariffs, Kavanaugh speculated.

    Barrett appeared receptive to the administration’s argument that unwinding the president’s tariff regime would require the United States to refund hundreds of billions in projected proceeds. Such an outcome would create a “mess,” she said.

    The court typically issues its opinions in June and July, at the end of its term. But it agreed to hear the tariffs case on an expedited basis and it is possible, perhaps even likely, that a decision will be issued sooner.

    Through much of the nation’s history, Congress jealously guarded its power under Article 1 Section 8 of the Constitution to “collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises” but began to cede some of that authority to the president early in the 20th century. While that has enabled the president to impose new tariffs and raise and lower existing duties, the president’s authority has at the same time been constrained by a latticework of regulatory agency requirements and foreign treaties.

    The issue before the court is whether the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, enacted in 1977, delegates tariff making authority to the president, permitting him to bypass existing controls. The law grants the president the power to “investigate, block during the pendency of an investigation, regulate, direct and compel, nullify, void, prevent or prohibit, any… importation or exportation of… any property in which any foreign country or a national thereof has any interest.”

    Presidents have typically used the law to impose financial sanctions on foreign governments and individuals, including asset seizures, but no president other than Trump has cited it as a basis for imposing tariffs. And nowhere in the text of the statute is the word tariff used.

    At the hearing, liberal justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan made much of this fact, but so too did conservative Neil Gorsuch, one of the court’s conservative majority. If the president could leverage his foreign policy authority into imposing tariffs, without congressional consent, there would be little for Congress to do in that arena.

    “Could the President impose a 50-percent tariff on gas-powered cars and auto parts to deal with the unusual and extraordinary threat from abroad of climate change,” Gorsuch asked.

    Citing the fentanyl epidemic, Trump imposed steep tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China in January and February, blaming them for the flow of synthetic opioids into the US. In April, he imposed a second set of tariffs on all US trading partners, arguing that mounting U.S. trade deficits had created a national emergency while from time to time suspending some duties as US officials negotiated with their foreign counterparts.

    At the outset, Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs triggered concerns that the higher cost of foreign made goods would trigger a new round of inflation.

    But so far, the impact has been subdued. Importers, still apparently rolling in lush post pandemic profit margins, have been absorbing at least a portion of the difference. Meantime, Trump’s negotiated sale of soybeans and other agricultural goods to China may blunt the impact on agricultural imports and assuage American farmers. Moreover, the tariffs have had a huge impact on the US Treasury receipts. So far, the government has collected nearly $100 billion and estimates for a full year range as high as $750 billion if the tariffs remain in place.

    But it isn’t just about revenue and economic clout. At bottom, the case centers on a fundamental theme of governance in the United States. Where does congressional authority end and where does the president’s begin and to what extent can the president’s foreign policy portfolio override the House and the Senate? It is a question that has animated American jurisprudence and politics from the beginning. Often there are powerful arguments on both sides and finding the right balance can be excruciatingly difficult.

  • Was Trump and Xi’s meeting really a ‘12 out of 10?’

    Was Trump and Xi’s meeting really a ‘12 out of 10?’

    Donald Trump says his meeting with Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea today was “amazing” and that, on a scale of one to 10, it merited a 12. Which means that on a scale for skepticism, it probably deserves a 13.

    Its biggest achievement appears to have been to at least put the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies on hold, though stock markets, excitable all week as the summit approached, opened flat this morning. Fundamental issues remain unchanged, the momentum towards economic separation will continue, possibly accelerating during the breathing space provided by an extended truce that is unlikely to last.

    The two leaders’ first face-to-face meeting in six years was relatively short, just 90 minutes, endorsing a “framework” agreement hammered out last weekend by officials in Kuala Lumpur, the Malaysian capital. Speaking aboard Air Force One on his way back to Washington, Trump said he had agreed to halve the fentanyl-related tariff on China to 10 percent and Xi pledged to “work very hard” to stop the export of chemical ingredients for the deadly opioid. He also said they had settled a dispute over Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports and that China would start buying a “massive amount” of American soybeans.

    Mutual trade restrictions on maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries will also be eased, at least temporarily, as will some aspects of America’s “entity list” of Chinese companies sanctioned as a threat to national security. “It was an amazing meeting,” Trump said, earlier describing Xi as a “great leader of a great country.” He said he would visit China in April and that Xi would make a reciprocal visit to the US – though this was not initially confirmed by Beijing.

    Yet on closer inspection it is all rather underwhelming. No formal agreement was signed – that will have to wait for further talks between officials. China’s restrictions on rare earths, a group of elements essential to high-tech industries from fighter jets to computer monitors, and where China has a near monopoly on refining, have been postponed for a year and not scrapped. Beijing’s licensing scheme, which was to have come into effect on December 1, goes far further than any coercive trade measures Beijing has ever imposed before and will remain hanging like a loaded gun over ongoing talks. It would effectively give the Chinese communist party a veto on the way these crucial elements are used worldwide.

    China appears no closer to getting its hands on top-end chips from America (or those made with American equipment) for its artificial intelligence industries, Trump saying that while they did discuss semiconductor exports, they did not talk about the most advanced versions. Again, it was pushed onto officials. Neither did they discuss Taiwan, according to Trump, which will come as a relief to those on the island who feared the US President might be tempted by some kind of grand bargain struck at its expense.

    China’s take on the meeting was more bland. No deals were confirmed, with the People’s Daily, a CCP newspaper, merely stating that Xi and Trump had “agreed to strengthen co-operation in areas such as trade and the economy, energy and the promotion of cultural exchanges,” noting that “both teams should refine and finalize the follow-up work as soon as possible, uphold and implement the consensus, and deliver tangible results.” The newspaper quoted Xi as saying they should avoid what he called a “vicious cycle of mutual retaliation.”

    The most difficult problem is one of trust. Chinese officials see Trump as volatile and unpredictable; meanwhile, there is deep skepticism in Washington that China will stick to any agreement. They point to the so-called Phase One trade deal struck during Trump’s first term, under which China promised but failed to buy $200 billion of extra US exports. A 2015 cyber espionage truce was also ignored, with Beijing continuing to penetrate and steal from western systems on an industrial scale.

    Both sides are unlikely to be deterred from aggressive decoupling of their economies. The US remains determined to deprive China of the most cutting-edge technologies that would give its military and security apparatus any advantage and to cut Beijing out of sensitive western supply chains more generally. Meanwhile, China has reiterated its determination to double down on technology self-reliance and secure a global lead in advanced manufacturing and technology – to which end it recently pledged to take “extraordinary measures” to achieve “decisive breakthroughs.” Perhaps the greatest value of this summit is to at least keep this decoupling process on rails and prevent it veering wildly out of control.

  • Ontario’s Reagan ad was a moronic mistake

    Ontario’s Reagan ad was a moronic mistake

    The on-again, off-again relationship between Canada and the US is off-again, again.

    In the latest chapter of this perpetual saga, US President Donald Trump announced on October 23 that trade negotiations between the White House and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had been “terminated.” Two days later, he went back to his Truth Social account and stated, “I am increasing the Tariff on Canada by 10 percent over and above what they are paying now.” To top it all off, Trump told reporters on Monday that he won’t be meeting with Carney “for a while.”

    What caused the President’s reaction? An old Ronald Reagan radio address, of all things. The Ontario government spent around $75 million creating a one-minute television ad for American networks. Parts of Reagan’s April 25, 1987 radio address on free and fair trade with Japan can be heard in the background of the advert. The reason that Ontario premier Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservative government used these audio clips was to make a point about tariffs and trade.

    It’s no secret that Reagan was largely opposed to the use of tariffs and spoke out strongly against them. “High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars,” the late president said, in part. “The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.”

    Reagan also addressed the reality of short-term tariffs to help create a level economic playing field. “When someone says, ‘Let’s impose tariffs on foreign imports,’ it looks like they’re doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes, for a short while, it works – but only for a short time,” he said. “What eventually occurs is: first, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets.”

    The Ontario government used Reagan’s exact lines from his radio address, and didn’t artificially reconstruct them. That’s fine, of course. The lingering question is why they did something so foolish in the first place.

    To begin with, the placement of Reagan’s lines in his radio address were shuffled around a bit. Here’s one example. The opening of the Ontario television ad contained Reagan’s point about tariffs being used for a short time in a perceived patriotic fashion. That particular paragraph occurred in the middle of his radio address. As someone who has written columns and political speeches, I can tell you the placement of certain ideas and theories is both intentional and critical to understanding the meaning behind it. Other professional writers would tell you the same thing, if they were being honest.  

    More than 600 of Reagan’s radio addresses were compiled in the 2001 book Reagan in His Own Hand. They were written in pen, contained few edits and followed a particular pattern, theme and cadence. It didn’t matter if he was discussing domestic policy, foreign policy, communism, capitalism, or even Halloween and Christmas. You can see it in every line, clause, paragraph and train of thought. 

    Why didn’t Reagan didn’t put those ideas about tariffs up front? It was likely because he thought they weren’t as critical as other concepts. Ontario’s decision to open the ad with them changed the meaning of his radio address. That’s unacceptable in my view. It’s also part of the reason why the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute is so irritated with the ad and feel it “misrepresents” Reagan’s remarks, along with the fact that they weren’t contacted for permission to use the clips. 

    Meanwhile, the Ontario government decided to poke the bear and irritate Trump in the middle of important trade negotiations. That was pretty moronic, too.

    While it’s true that the President wasn’t initially bothered by the ad, this changed over the course of a few days. It’s not the first time this has happened to Trump in his presidency, by any means. There could be several reasons the President changed his mind about the ad. Perhaps he had second thoughts after letting it stew for a few days or his advisers turned him against it. Regardless, Trump doesn’t take kindly to what he perceives as criticism or ridicule of his ideas and policies. One has to always be aware of this during a negotiation with him.  

    Ford heavily contributed to this situation. The Ontario premier originally employed a tough but reasonable approach in dealing with the Trump White House when the tariff battle started, but he’s gone off the rails as of late. Why? He knows that many Ontarians (and Canadians) are frustrated with Trump’s tariffs and leadership, so he thinks that it’s to his political benefit. This is in spite of his PC government being well ahead in the polls and not needing to poke the bear. Diplomacy, thy name definitely isn’t Doug Ford.

    Guess what? It backfired. The Ontario ad was quickly pulled after Trump pushed back. While some political experts and Ontario ministers were quite pleased with the response and publicity, the PM was seemingly not among them. “There were a series of very detailed, very specific, very comprehensive discussions… up until the point of those ads running,” Carney told reporters at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia. What a mess that the Ontario government has made.

  • Trump’s World Series wind-up

    Trump’s World Series wind-up

    It’s thanks to good old Yankee bravado that baseball’s most important fixture is called the “World Series,” even though it’s a thoroughly North American affair.

    Yet Major League Baseball, like the National Hockey League, is not restricted to the US – Canada joins in, too. Tonight, for instance, the Toronto Blue Jays will compete against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first game of what should be a thrilling World Series, and the now-familiar Canadian-American sporting rivalry has been given added spice thanks to a certain man who happens to be President of the United States.

    Last night, Donald Trump, who relishes abrupt announcements, abruptly announced that he was suspending trade negotiations with Canada. The reason? He was deeply annoyed by a television advertisement, paid for by the Province of Ontario, which replayed some old footage of Ronald Reagan condemning tariffs as a recipe for economic catastrophe.

    “TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A.,” Trump replied on his Truth Social platform. “Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.”

    In another post, Trump declared that the ad was fraudulent. He said it had been broadcast in order “to interfere with the decision of the US Supreme Court,” which is currently pondering a big legal challenge to the President’s tariff agenda.

    The advert has clearly been troubling him since at least Tuesday, when he said “I see foreign countries now, that we are doing really well with, taking ads ‘Don’t go with tariffs!’ They’re taking ads. I saw an ad last night from Canada. If I was Canada, I’d take the same ad also.”

    It’s always hard to tell if Trump is ever truly enraged or merely playing mind games for headlines and leverage. But he seems oddly determined to wind up America’s second biggest trading partner – and neighbor. He has said, repeatedly, that he thinks Canada should become America’s 51st state, and his blustering on that front helped Mark Carney, the impeccably globalist former governor of the Bank of England, win an election and become the country’s prime minister. Carney’s victory was widely put down to the “Trumplash,” the global reaction to the Donald’s obnoxious tariff agenda.

    But the relationship between the United States (the superpower) and Canada (its more European neighbor) is more intimate and complicated than mere policy. Trump’s dismantling of NAFTA – the free trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico – and his replacing it with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is one of the important and under-discussed aspects of his two-terms as Commander-in-Chief. USMCA is still mostly in effect, despite Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel, automobile parts and lumber.

    Will Trump continue to use tariffs as a tool in his push for full annexation? Or is he just toying with the sporting hype around the World Series? We’ll probably never know. The Dodgers are favorites to win, by the way, and – despite what Sean Thomas says about American sports – I think we should all tune in.

  • Trump cuddles Carney 

    Trump cuddles Carney 

    “Let me not to the marriage of true minds admit impediments,” William Shakespeare wrote in Sonnet 116, and he appears to have been prophetically talking about the very special relationship between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. 

    The first meeting between the two leaders a few months ago was friendly. But today’s press conference, before a tariff negotiation lunch, was essentially a cuddlefest. Carney called Trump a “transformative president.” Trump joked about the upcoming “US/Canada merger,” and said the two countries had “natural conflict and natural love,” like in any marriage. 

    The problem, Trump said, “is that they want a car company, and we want a car company. It’s a natural business conflict… nothing wrong with it. When it comes to trade, the United States gave everything to Canada. Other Presidents didn’t see that. They were good politicians, but they weren’t business oriented. We’ve come a long way.”

    Carney nodded along while Trump said open borders made America a “raging hellhole,” which affected Canada as well. Trump said that his policy of blowing Venezuelan drug boats out of the water had made Canada safer, and Carney said “yep yep.” The “Golden Dome” missile protection system also brought along a “yep,” and as for tariffs, Carney said, “there are areas where we compete, and it’s in those areas where we have to come to agreement that works. But there are more areas where we’re stronger together, and that’s what we’re focused on, and we’re going to get the right deal.”

    “It’s true,” Trump said. 

    The press conference included the usual Trumpian side rants. The Democrats had shut down the government. Chicago has a lot of murders and incompetent leaders. If the Democrats had won the Presidency, there’d be men playing women’s sports. They’d be taking away your children and changing their sex, and there’d be windmills everywhere. “I’m not sure we’d even have a country,” Trump said. 

    But back to the matter at hand, Trump said, “I want to make the best deal with Canada and also whatever the best deal is for Canada. Other leaders have told me this, but Mark said he would too. A year ago we were a dead country, and now we are the hottest country anywhere in the world. There’s never been a country in the world that has money coming into it like this one. Maybe Canada. I do like Canada… The people of Canada, they will love us again. Most of them still do. Maybe 25 percent. I assume a lot of ‘em. I think they love us.”

    Regardless of whether or not that’s true, Trump does appear to have natural love for Prime Minister Carney. “I think he’s a great Prime Minister,” Trump said. “I mean, he could represent me any time. He is very strong, he is a very good leader. He’s a nice man, but he can be nasty. Maybe as nasty as anybody. I can tell you this because I deal with a lot of leaders all over the world. He is a world-class leader. He is a man that knows what he wants. I’m not surprised he won the election. He’s a good man, he does a great job, and he’s a tough negotiator.”

    So what’s the holdup? A Canadian reporter asked. If he’s such a great man, then why don’t you reach a deal? 

    “Because,” Trump said, sticking the landing, “I want to be a great man too.”